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Characterizing the masses and orbits of near-Earth-mass planets is crucial for interpreting observations from future direct imaging missions (e.g., HabEx, LUVOIR). Therefore, the Exoplanet Science Strategy report recommended further research so future extremely precise radial velocity surveys could contribute to the discovery and/or characterization of near-Earth-mass planets in the habitable zones of nearby stars prior to the launch of these future imaging missions. Newman et al. (2023) simulated such 10 yr surveys under various telescope architectures, demonstrating they can precisely measure the masses of potentially habitable Earth-mass planets in the absence of stellar variability. Here, we investigate the effect of stellar variability on the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the planet mass measurements in these simulations. We find that correlated noise due to active regions has the largest effect on the observed mass S/N, reducing the S/N by a factor of ∼5.5 relative to the no-variability scenario; granulation reduces by a factor of ∼3, while p-mode oscillations has little impact on the proposed survey strategies. We show that in the presence of correlated noise, 5 cm s⁻¹instrumental precision offers little improvement over 10 cm s⁻¹precision, highlighting the need to mitigate astrophysical variability. With our noise models, extending the survey to 15 yr doubles the number of Earth-analogs with mass S/N > 10, and reaching this threshold for any Earth-analog orbiting a star >0.76M_⊙in a 10 yr survey would require an increase in the number of observations per star from that in Newman et al. (2023).

TOI-2076 b is a sub-Neptune-sized planet (R= 2.39 ± 0.10R_⊕) that transits a young (204 ± 50 MYr) bright (V= 9.2) K-dwarf hosting a system of three transiting planets. Using spectroscopic observations obtained with the NEID spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5 m Telescope, we model the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect of TOI-2076 b, and derive a sky-projected obliquity of$\lambda =-3_{-15}^{+16°}$. Using the size of the star (R= 0.775 ± 0.015R_⊙), and the stellar rotation period (P_rot= 7.27 ± 0.23 days), we estimate an obliquity of$\psi ={18}_{-9}^{+10°}$(ψ< 34° at 95% confidence), demonstrating that TOI-2076 b is in a well-aligned orbit. Simultaneous diffuser-assisted photometry from the 3.5 m telescope at Apache Point Observatory rules out flares during the transit. TOI-2076 b joins a small but growing sample of young planets in compact multi-planet systems with well-aligned orbits, and is the fourth planet with an age ≲300 Myr in a multi-transiting system with an obliquity measurement. The low obliquity of TOI-2076 b and the presence of transit timing variations in the system suggest the TOI-2076 system likely formed via convergent disk migration in an initially well-aligned disk.

We detail the follow-up and characterization of a transiting exo-Venus identified by TESS, GJ 3929b (TOI-2013b), and its nontransiting companion planet, GJ 3929c (TOI-2013c). GJ 3929b is an Earth-sized exoplanet in its star’s Venus zone (P_b= 2.616272 ± 0.000005 days; S_b=${17.3}_{-0.7}^{+0.8}$S_⊕) orbiting a nearby M dwarf. GJ 3929c is most likely a nontransiting sub-Neptune. Using the new, ultraprecise NEID spectrometer on the WIYN 3.5 m Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory, we are able to modify the mass constraints of planet b reported in previous works and consequently improve the significance of the mass measurement to almost 4σconfidence (M_b= 1.75 ± 0.45M_⊕). We further adjust the orbital period of planet c from its alias at 14.30 ± 0.03 days to the likely true period of 15.04 ± 0.03 days, and we adjust its minimum mass to$m\sin i$= 5.71 ± 0.92M_⊕. Using the diffuser-assisted ARCTIC imager on the ARC 3.5 m telescope at Apache Point Observatory, in addition to publicly available TESS and LCOGT photometry, we are able to constrain the radius of planet b toR_p= 1.09 ± 0.04R_⊕. GJ 3929b is a top candidate for transmission spectroscopy in its size regime (TSM = 14 ± 4), and future atmospheric studies of GJ 3929b stand to shed light on the nature of small planets orbiting M dwarfs.